War with Iran: Tariffs, the Strait, and What Comes Next

As the conflict in Iran continues to evolve, so do its implications for global trade. APAC Advisors hosted the fourth in its War with Iran webinar series, bringing together three leading voices to assess where things stand — and what businesses should be preparing for.

The tariff roadmap

Barbara Weisel, Former Assistant USTR and Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, laid out the tariff landscape with precision. The key date to watch is July 24th, when the current global 10% tariff under Section 122 expires. The baseline scenario from that point is a return to IEEPA tariff rates — potentially higher if countries have not signed trade agreements by then. Notably, the trajectory of tariffs appears to be moving ahead regardless of the economic disruption caused by the conflict.

Reading the conflict

Simon Evenett, Founder of the St.Gallen Endowment and Professor of Geopolitics and Strategy at IMD Business School, presented the latest analysis from the Iran Conflict Monitor. The most probable outcome remains a regional war, assessed at 46% likelihood. On the critical question of the Strait of Hormuz, the Monitor does not anticipate the first unescorted commercial vessel completing a full transit for at least another three months.

APAC Advisors CEO Steven Okun offered his assessment of why this timeline holds: the IRGC has strong incentives to remain in power, secure financing for reconstruction, and maintain a credible deterrent against any strategy aimed at degrading their long-term capabilities. That logic points to a prolonged conflict — which, combined with the tariff timeline, raises a serious question for businesses: are we heading toward doubled tariffs in the middle of a global economic crisis?

The open questions

Several scenarios could shift this outlook. Whether the US succeeds in genuinely reopening the Strait — or opts to declare victory without ensuring lasting freedom of navigation — carries very different consequences for energy prices and geopolitical stability. And with economic headwinds building, it remains to be seen whether the domestic pressure on the US economy by July would give pause to further tariff escalation.

The series will continue as the situation develops. A fifth session is already in the works.