The National Press Foundation

Journalism in a World of Obsolete Geopolitical Assumptions

There is no "trade truce" between the US and China. That was Steve Okun's opening line — and he meant every word of it.

Steve returned for his annual session with the National Press Foundation's International Trade Reporting Fellowship, speaking to 25 journalists from across Asia on geopolitics and trade. The message was clear: too many stories are still being told through a lens that no longer reflects reality. Three themes drove the conversation:

The US-China trade truce is a myth. The narrative of a pause or reset doesn't hold up to scrutiny. The structural tensions between the two powers remain very much in play.

AI is an underappreciated geopolitical risk. Governments, businesses, and investors are not taking seriously what AI means for global stability. AI risk scenario analysis isn't optional — it's essential.

Countries are quietly walking away from both the US and China. The shift is real, but alternative trading frameworks are years away. The transition will be slow, complex, and underreported.

If journalists are going to cover trade in 2025 and beyond, they need to update their assumptions — or risk writing yesterday's story about tomorrow's world.