The Nanson Geopolitical Series: Trump 2.0

Forget the usual swing voters. The “precariat” is the new voting base shaping the midterms. They're those living with chronic insecurity - unstable work, unpredictable income and few of the safety nets once taken for granted.

As part of Steven Okun’s Geopolitical Series at The Nanson, we explored what could shape the midterms and US-China relations, in discussion with Deborah Elms, Damien Ma and Sonal Varma.

This insecurity cuts across the US political and economic landscape. It’s influencing how people vote, how they experience the labour market, how they respond to trade policy and, ultimately, how the US approaches economic competition with Beijing.

Trump’s approval, at 38%, is looking more like Bush in 2006 - the last midterm cycle to cost a party both chambers. Trade is integral to this story, with Michigan, Ohio, Iowa and Maine among the newly competitive states and who are feeling the tariff war hardest. 

The same insecurity is showing up in the economy. AI is creating more jobs than it’s cutting across Asia, but that doesn’t mean everyone is better off. People are still losing jobs, and for politicians, that experience matters far more than the headline numbers.

On US-China stability, the current “principal-to-principal” calm rests partly on both sides knowing the other can retaliate. A weaker Trump after November could make that balance harder to sustain, with trade, tech and Taiwan still central to Beijing.