The Hinrich Foundation: Trade won Trump the White House. It could lose him Congress.
Trade, once central to Donald Trump’s political rise, could turn against him and the Republican Party in the 2026 midterms. Tariffs, the war with Iran, and uncertainty over USMCA are moving trade front and center this year, especially in trade-exposed states, potentially helping Democrats reclaim the House and possibly the Senate.
“It’s the economy, stupid,” a phrase from Bill Clinton’s winning 1992 Presidential campaign, epitomizes how economic issues drive US voters.
In 2016, Donald Trump won the Presidency in part due to his ability to convince voters the trade policies of his predecessors hurt Americans.
Trump ran against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, calling it a "bad deal" and promising to withdraw the United States from it, if elected. He slammed the North American Free Trade Agreement as the "worst trade deal ever signed".
"We can't continue to allow China to rape our country... It's the greatest theft in the history of the world," he said at the time.
In this year’s midterm elections, Trump and his Republican Party could be on the receiving end of trade-driven voter sentiment, this time turned against Trump because voters view his tariffs and foreign policy as leading to their economic woes. Voter approval for Trump’s handling of the economy hovers around 30%.
To some economists, the connection between trade and the US economy remains highly debated because of the relatively low share of trade in its GDP. At around 27%, it makes the American economy one of the least trade-oriented in the world.
Not so in politics.
